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Mutual geometry of confocal Keplerian orbits: uncertainty of the MOID and search for virtual PHAs

机译:共焦开普勒轨道的相互几何:MOID的不确定性和寻找虚拟PHA

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摘要

The Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance (MOID) between two confocal Keplerian orbits is a useful tool to know if two celestial bodies can collide or undergo a very close approach. We describe some results and open problems on the number of local minimum points of the distance between two points on the two orbits and the position of such points with respect to the mutual nodes. The errors affecting the observations of an asteroid result in uncertainty in its orbit determination and, consequently, uncertainty in the MOID. The latter is always positive and is not regular where it vanishes; this prevents us from considering it as a Gaussian random variable, and from computing its covariance by standard tools. In a recent work we have introduced a regularization of the maps giving the local minimum values of the distance between two orbits. It uses a signed value of the distance, with the sign given to the MOID according to a simple orientation property. The uncertainty of the regularized MOID has been computed for a large database of orbits. In this way we have searched for Virtual PHAs, i.e. asteroids which can belong to the category of PHAs (Potentially Hazardous Asteroids) if the errors in the orbit determination are taken into account. Among the Virtual PHAs we have found objects that are not even NEA, according to their nominal orbit.
机译:两个共焦开普勒轨道之间的最小轨道相交距离(MOID)是了解两个天体是否会发生碰撞或非常接近的有用工具。我们描述了两个轨道上两点之间距离的局部最小点的数量以及这些点相对于相互节点的位置的一些结果和未解决的问题。影响小行星观测结果的误差会导致其轨道确定的不确定性,进而导致MOID的不确定性。后者永远是积极的,消失的地方也不规则;这使我们无法将其视为高斯随机变量,也无法通过标准工具计算其协方差。在最近的工作中,我们引入了地图的正则化,从而给出了两个轨道之间距离的局部最小值。它使用距离的有符号值,并根据简单的方向属性将符号赋予MOID。已为大型轨道数据库计算出正则化MOID的不确定性。通过这种方式,我们已经搜索了虚拟PHA,即如果考虑了轨道确定中的错误,则可以属于PHA类别的小行星(潜在危险小行星)。在虚拟PHA中,根据其名义轨道,我们发现了什至不是NEA的物体。

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